As per the co-founder of Huobi, one of the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchanges, Bitcoin may not see a bull market until late 2024 or the beginning of 2025, if past price cycles are any indication.
The CEO explained that the markets are very closely related to the concept of ‘halving’, which happens once in a while, and it determines the bullish nature of the Bitcoin market.
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What is the Process of Halving?
This phenomenon is associated with what are called ‘miners’ who carry out their operations through the Bitcoin network, and use hi-tech, catered computers to unravel complex mathematical and logical puzzles to conduct transactions on the platform.
Hence, these miners are able to avail Bitcoin as the result of their efforts. Halving is a feature of Bitcoin’s source code that reduces the incentive given to “miners’’ for verifying transactions on the cryptocurrency’s ecosystem by half. It happens every 4 years or so.
The latest halving was around two years ago, and bitcoin climbed to an ATH of a figure close to around $69k in the last fiscal year. When the halving was deployed around six years earlier this same circumstance was repeated. Subsequently, in the next year, the cryptocurrency asset found itself reaching record-breaking highs.
The asset’s value then plunged after the two peaks and is now trading at an approximate figure of forty per cent, below its 2021 record, but it is still much higher than its current year’s lows. Experts suggest that the next halving cycle could kick into effect around two years from now.
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Crypto Winter and the Expectation of a Bear Market
As per a translation of Du’s Mandarin statements, he remarked that the continuation of this cycle would currently place the bitcoin asset in the early stages of a bear market.
He also stated that it is incredibly difficult to anticipate the state of the market precisely, as there are so many other events that may affect the market; citing international concerns like conflict and the ongoing COVID crisis as examples. On the basis of this pattern, he is confident that the market will not be able to embrace a bull market on Bitcoin until 2024-25.
Some market players are concerned that an apparent “crypto winter,” or a prolonged phase of bearishness, would now surround the crypto market as a result of the recent price decrease in various cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin may move in a sideways trend during such periods.
Most market experts are positive that the crypto winter has arrived, and it is expected to linger for some time. The cryptocurrency market has lost almost $400 billion, and the downturn has also highlighted the flaws in several established crypto firms, which have been unable to withstand these adversities.
This is not the first time, nor will it be the last, that the crypto market has been severely impacted by a worldwide financial slump- following the UST disaster, each algorithmic stablecoin, including USD, will be put to the test.
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Expected Timeline for Recovery
The halving of BTC mining activity is significantly associated with the fluctuation of cryptocurrencies. As per experts, the consequent halving will take place in the initial portion of 2024, with output dropping from 6 to 3 times BTC. Based on the previous history, the advent of this is when a new cycle of the market should begin.
Speculators are also certain that it is now time for industry players to improve their product offerings and business approaches. They also believe that policies need to be put in place to accelerate the market traders’ confidence and wealth. However, most experts are hopeful that the market will pick up soon enough, and investors and traders alike will be able to place their confidence in the market.
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