The government’s economic credibility rests on it plausibly explaining how it can close a £60bn hole in the public finances.
With cuts to public spending effectively ruled out by the prime minister on Wednesday amid opposition from her own MPs, and the growth she prioritises not about to magically bail out the mini-budget, that only leaves the tax measures.
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The package of cuts set out by Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng 20 short days ago was to cost £26bn next year, rising to £45bn by 2026-27, funded entirely by borrowing, to the evident alarm of the markets.
The 45p rate has already been reinstated, saving £2bn, but ditching other measures could recoup even more.
Abandoning a 1.25% dividend tax cut, said to be under consideration, would save £1.4bn, while reinstating the 25% corporation tax rate, due to come down to 19%, would deliver another £12.3bn next year.
An even bigger saving of £17bn would be delivered if the National Insurance cut was reversed.
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Delaying or abandoning cutting the basic rate of income tax from 20p to 19p meanwhile would be worth £5bn in 2022-23.
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Reversing on any or all of these flagship tax measures, the USP that won her the Conservative leadership, would come at a significant price to the political credibility of Liz Truss and might be terminal for her chancellor.
The alternative, a damaging loss of economic confidence in the UK, might be even more painful.
