COVID rates are beginning to fall, but cases of serious flu are rising fast in young children, according to the latest official data.
The UK Health Security Agency’s weekly briefing on the two diseases suggests a mixed outlook for the NHS, which is struggling with winter diseases and a waiting list backlog.
Testing of hospital patients and health workers shows COVID rates have fallen from 13.9 to 11 per 100,000 people over the last week.
It is an early sign the COVID wave may be reaching a peak.
Rates in hospital patients broadly reflect those in the wider population.
But it will be another couple of weeks before that’s likely to show up in the community testing carried out by the Office for National Statistics, which has an in-built lag.
More of a concern for public health doctors is the rapid rise of flu over the last week.
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Across the population, influenza positivity increased from 3.3% to 4.1%.
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But the surge is particularly affecting children.
Rates in those aged five to 14 almost trebled from around 4% to 11% in a week.
And hospital admissions in children under five are now the highest of any age group, with 2.79 per 100,000 needing treatment.
Pre-schoolers also have the highest admission rates to intensive care – 0.32 for every 100,000, twice as high as last week.
Dr Mary Ramsay, director of public health programmes at the UKHSA, said: “Our latest data shows early signs of the anticipated threat we expected to face from flu this season.
“We’re urging parents, in particular, not to be caught out as rates of hospitalisations and ICU admissions are currently rising fastest in children under five.
“This will be a concern for many parents and carers of young children, and we urge them to take up the offer of vaccination for eligible children as soon as possible.”
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Just 12.1% of two-year-olds and 12.8% of three-year-olds have so far been vaccinated against flu, significantly lower than uptake rates at this time last year.
Dr Ramsay said lower COVID rates may be as a result of the autumn booster topping up immunity.
“There’s no room for complacency though, as cases could rise again at any point and we need to be armed in readiness through vaccination of everyone who’s eligible,” she said.
“Don’t delay, please come forward for both COVID and flu vaccinations as soon as you’re offered them.”
