COVID-19 cases are continuing to rise, but could be nearing a peak, the latest data suggest.
The weekly infection survey from the Office for National Statistics shows an estimated 2,012,400 people had the virus in the UK in the week ending 10 October.
That’s around one in 30 people and a rise of 15.4% on the week before.
But there are hints that the spread of coronavirus is beginning to slow in many parts of England, which accounts for the bulk of cases.
In London, the North East and the South West rates have levelled off. And in the East Midlands, the North West and east of England they’re beginning to fall.
Rates are rising in people aged between 50 and 69, but they are level or falling in children and other adults.
The ONS survey is the most accurate measure of COVID, but its methodology means there is a slight lag in the data.
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Other data sources that are more up to date, but less comprehensive, also suggest that the wave may be reaching a peak.
The latest COVID-19 figures from the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) shows rates in hospital patients and healthcare workers are decreasing.
Rates in people being admitted to hospital are indicative of cases in the wider community.
Mark Woolhouse, professor of infectious disease epidemiology at the University of Edinburgh, said beneath the headline figure of rising cases “the data are more encouraging” as the rate of increase is slowing.
“All in all, it appears that the current wave is peaking, and may already have peaked, at a lower level than previous waves this year,” he said.
“It is, however, difficult to know whether or when there will be further waves, not least because we cannot predict the appearance of new variants.”
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It will be another fortnight or so before a clear trend emerges, showing with confidence whether the surge of recent weeks is waning or whether this is a temporary stall in the autumn wave.
Rates of immunity in the population had been uncertain.
Most people haven’t had a jab since last winter. But Omicron has continued to bubble up through the year, with many people infected several times.
The UKHSA is still urging people over the age of 50 to come forward for a booster because they are at higher risk of serious disease if they are infected.
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