Sky News analysis reveals the price of a can of baked beans has doubled since 2018, and a summer barbecue this year will cost £10 more than it did five years ago. Use our calculators below to compare how recent events have affected the cost of your groceries, clothing, and leisure activities.
Stuart Parkinson, an economist at Retail Economics, told Sky News:
“Historically, it typically takes two or three things to go wrong in relatively quick succession to really let the cat out of the bag with respect to inflation.
“Unfortunately, that’s what has happened just in recent years: Brexit was punch one; COVID, punch two; and then Russia/Ukraine punch three.
“And once the inflation cat gets out of the bag, it leaves policymakers with a heck of a job getting it back in. And that’s where we are now.
“People are starting to realise that the road back to 2% inflation is far trickier and more hazardous than they realised, and it can also take a long time.”
See how your spending has gone up compared to five years ago
The price of a can of baked beans has nearly doubled since 2018 from 56p up to £1.07, the biggest food price increase over the period. A pack of frozen burgers has increased by 65%, from £2.01 in January 2018 up to £3.32 now.
The item with the biggest increase in the shopping basket was a day’s car hire, which has increased from £37.63 in 2018 to £78.80 now.
Brexit and the pandemic have contributed to price rises
2020 saw the double shock of the UK’s official exit from the European Union at the end of January, closely followed by the global COVID pandemic with lockdowns starting in March.
Initially, inflation remained low as the nation headed into lockdown and spent less money. Once lockdowns had eased in 2021, pent-up demand combined with supply disruptions saw prices increase rapidly.
Paula Bejarano Carbo, associate economist at the National Institute of Economic and Social Research, told Sky News that COVID-related supply chain issues were a major driver of inflationary momentum in 2021:
“There was a sudden overheating of the UK economy.
“The UK is not a country that typically has a very high savings rate. But over the pandemic there was excess saving as people were not able to spend.
“As soon as restrictions started lifting people started spending quite quickly and there was excess demand in the economy which pushed up prices.”
Some household DIY items have seen the biggest price rises since 2020. MDF fireboard has gone up 73%, from £18.59 to £32.16, while a box of ceramic tiles has increased from £11.39 to £18.08.
Some 29 of the top 50 price increases since 2020 are within the food and drink category.
Researchers at The Centre for Economic Performance at the London School of Economics have looked at isolating the inflationary impact of Brexit from other recent economic events.
Their latest report suggests that Brexit contributed an additional 30 percentage points to food price inflation between December 2019 and March 2023, with food prices increasing by 25% over the time period. Had the UK not exited the European Union, their analysis estimates, the increase would have been 17%.
Nikhil Datta, assistant professor in the Department of Economics at the University of Warwick, who co-authored the research, told Sky News that non-tariff trade barriers – border frictions other than taxes – were the biggest driver of Brexit-specific inflation.
He said: “When we say frictions, we mean things which are going to make it costly for firms to move things across borders. Food products in particular face quite a few of these as a result of regulatory differences across different countries.”
Firms may also be anticipating future issues and hiring additional employees or consultants to assist with border frictions, and adapting prices accordingly.
“So, when adhering to regulations at the border there is the cost of actually doing it at the border, like the veterinary check, but there’s also the fact that you’ve got to change the structure of your business somewhat.
“That is part of what we’re seeing now. When we start seeing these hard checks at the border [in the future], these price increases might be larger. Or it could be that actually businesses have already taken these into account in their current pricing structure.”
Food prices have rocketed since Russia invaded Ukraine
Then came Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, sending further shocks through the international economy. Energy, fertiliser and grain prices rise significantly last year, with a particularly big impact on food and fuel bills.
The price of olive oil increased more than any other food product since 2022, rising by 58% from £3.91 to £6.16.
None of the 152 types of food tracked by the ONS have become cheaper since February 2022. Only cereal bars have managed to avoid any price increase, staying at 31p.
Persistent inflation has knock on effects on the rest of the economy, and the Bank of England has been raising interest rates in an attempt to control price rises.
Stuart Parkinson explained: “Central bankers have created a host of ways to manage financial shocks in the past 20 years – and, let’s face it, they’ve also had plenty of practice.
“But their inflation-fighting toolkit is much more limited, and their main tool – raising interest rates – inflicts a lot of collateral damage in the process, hence their reticence to deploy it to its fullest effect.”
Methodology
The ONS collects these prices by visiting thousands of shops across the country and noting down the prices of specific items. There are upwards of 100,000 prices published every month, from more than 600 products.
The items that form the “official shopping basket” change each year to reflect how the purchasing habits of the population have changed. For example in March 2021, after a year of the pandemic, hand gel, loungewear bottoms and dumbbells were added, while canteen-bought sandwiches were among the items removed.
Where there aren’t the exact equivalent items available at a survey shop, ONS officials pick the best alternative and note that they’ve done this so it’s weighted correctly when the averages are worked out.
Shops are weighted as well, so the price in a major chain supermarket will have a greater impact on the average than an independent corner shop.
During the pandemic, more of the survey was carried out over the phone and work is ongoing to digitise the system to be able to take in more price points by getting data from supermarket receipts, rather than making personal visits.
The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open source information. Through multimedia storytelling we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.
