It may be a Conservative stronghold but polls suggest Selby and Ainsty could turn red for the first time in 13 years at a crunch by-election on Thursday.
Labour is aiming to take the North Yorkshire constituency from the Tories – one of three areas where new MPs are being selected in what could be a difficult day for Prime Minister Rishi Sunak.
If the opposition is successful it would set a record for the size of a majority overturned – at 20,000 – by Labour at a by-election.
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It would also usher in a new ‘Baby of the House’ as Labour candidate Keir Maher would become the youngest MP in the Commons aged just 25.
The Selby seat was left vacant by the resignation of MP Nigel Adams, an ultra-Boris Johnson loyalist who resigned a day after he was snubbed for a peerage.
Now, there are 13 candidates vying to replace him. Here, Sky News takes a look at who they are.
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Keir Mather – Labour
Mr Mather works as a senior public affairs adviser for the Confederation of British Industry and before that was a parliamentary researcher for shadow health secretary Wes Streeting.
At just 25, if elected, he would be the youngest MP in the Commons – replacing Labour’s Nadia Whittome as the so-called Baby of the House.
The Oxford graduate, from Hull, has said his age means he can relate to younger voters who are struggling to get on the housing ladder and facing a lack of economic opportunity.
His campaign has centred on the cost-of-living crisis, public transport and NHS waiting lists, as well as local issues such as flooding and sewage and anti-social behaviour.
A win for Labour requires a huge 18-point swing – well beyond the national 12-point swing the party needs for an overall majority at the next general election.
But while the demographics might not be trending in Labour’s favour, as more than a fifth of people are aged over 60, the issues are.
Selby and Ainsty is in the top 40 seats in England and Wales for mortgage holders – and growing interest rates could have an impact on the vote.
Claire Holmes – Conservative
Ms Holmes is a barrister and local councillor.
She has honed in on her local roots, insisting she is not a career politician but a “Yorkshire mum who wants to stand up and protect our beautiful part of the country”.
Her priorities include cutting rural crime with more police, protecting green spaces and securing jobs and investment in the region.
She has also vowed to work closely with the government to help it achieve its five priorities, which include halving inflation and “stopping the boats”.
Ms Holmes has insisted that while some residents are angry about the circumstances of Mr Adams’ departure, most conversations she has had on the doorstep have been about who would represent them in future.
She told the Northern Agenda podcast: “They want the same thing as I want, they want somebody who’s going to be deeply rooted in this community, who’s going to be very visible, who’s going to be very accessible to them, and there’s going to be a strong voice for them.”
Matt Walker – Liberal Democrat
Mr Walker is an NHS manager and a local councillor in Knaresborough, which is just outside the Selby and Ainsty constituency boundary.
His campaign has focused on the state of the NHS and the cost of living crisis – with his party backing a mortgage relief fund and free school meals.
While the Lib Dems have typically been third choice for voters in this constituency, they have made gains in Tory heartlands in recent years, increasing seats across Yorkshire at the local elections in May.
Mr Walker has accused the Tories of “taking North Yorkshire for granted for too long” and says it’s “time for change”.
Arnold Warneken – Green
Green party candidate Mr Warneken is another local councillor who represents North Yorkshire.
The retired farmer has lived in the Selby and Ainsty constituency for 40 years and says his priorities include tightening legislation around water pollution and protecting the NHS.
He also supports more investment in public transport, decarbonising energy and reducing crime by tackling its root causes.
Read more:
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A number of candidates have also put themselves forward as independents or to represent smaller parties. That includes:
Andrew Gray – Independent
Entrepreneur Andrew Gray has dubbed himself the “AI candidate” based on his focus for Artificial Intelligence. He used AI to crowdsource the views of constituents to formulate his manifesto, which includes renationalising the Bank of England.
Mike Jordan – Yorkshire Party
Local councillor Mike Jordan is standing for the Yorkshire Party, which wants a regional parliament in Yorkshire. His election priorities are tackling the housing crisis, improving public transport and building more wind farms.
Dave Kent – Reform UK
Dave Kent is a father-of-four from Yorkshire who is standing for Reform UK – a right-wing party originally founded by Nigel Farage and now headed by millionaire businessman Richard Tice.
Nick Palmer – Independent
Yorkshire business executive Nick Palmer says he is standing as an independent in response to voter apathy caused by “the tribal culture within the Westminster system”. He argues the outcome of the by-election won’t make a difference to the nation’s problems so people should use their vote in “protest” at the two main parties and vote for him.
Guy Phoenix – Heritage Party
Local businessman Guy Phoenix is standing for the Heritage Party, a socially conservative party that says it wants to protect free speech and traditional values.
Sir Archibald Stanton – Official Monster Raving Loony
Sir Archibald Stanton is the candidate for the Official Monster Raving Loony Party – a satirical political party which encourages people who don’t usually vote to “vote unusually”.
John Waterston – Social Democratic Party
Father-of-two John Waterson is a former building society manager who now runs a pub in Selby. His campaign is focused on improving transport links, cutting crime, improving recreational activities for young people and strengthening the economy.
Luke Wellock – Climate Party
Luke Wellock is a sustainability professional who says he is standing to make climate change the top priority for the people of Selby and Ainsty.
Tyler Wilson-Kerr – Independent
Tyler Wilson-Kerr is a 24-year-old parish councillor who also works for a Leeds aerospace engineering firm. He told the Yorkshire Press that his priorities include greater devolution for Yorkshire, rent controls and a tax on second homes.
