Congress isn’t back in session yet (a restful Yom Kippur to those observing), but Speaker Kevin McCarthy is still scrambling for a deal to fund the government that can pass the House and appease his right flank.
Which leaves Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer to move ahead this week on a bill that, by the time the shutdown clock ticks below 100 hours, may still be the only option on the table in Washington. And remember, nothing is final until the bill drops.
Schumer started advancing a shell late last week to serve as the vehicle for a stopgap bill that would keep the government open past Saturday. Behind the scenes, Senate party leaders are hashing out the specifics so that they can move to final passage as soon as possible this week.
And that means moving quickly. The House is set to vote late Tuesday on four spending bills that – let’s be clear – may not even pass along party lines and still would not address the shutdown that looms at week’s end.
Senators are still discussing what its government funding patch will look like, but don’t be surprised if it’s short — think around four to six weeks — and pretty darn clean.
That’s because any bipartisan Senate solution needs to pass muster with its conservatives, who can delay passage by declining to grant unanimous consent, and with McCarthy, who is trying to save his speakership from more conservative fury.
Expect minimal to no new Ukraine aid to avoid a Sen. Rand Paul problem. The Kentucky Republican is on record vowing to slow down any bill that contains more money for President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s fight against Russia. The Senate bill also might scrimp on the Biden administration’s disaster aid request – which would present its own challenges, given that Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.) is seeking a standalone vote on that cash.
But by punting a possible shutdown into later in the fall, senators would buy themselves more chances to come back at those priorities.
Senators will take a procedural vote on Tuesday evening to advance the House’s FAA bill as a potential avenue for their funding debate. That’s by design – federal aviation law expires on Oct. 1 along with government funding, so whatever plan prevents a shutdown would also need to extend aviation policy to avoid disruptions in the sky.
Unanimous consent from all 100 senators to pass the bill will be needed to avoid a brief shutdown. Such agreement often comes together pretty darn close to the deadline.
If the Senate can pass a relatively clean funding patch, party leaders hope the speaker will find it easier to jam through. Still, it’s hard to see how the California Republican gets anything through the House without seeking Democratic votes, which runs the risk of conservative members bringing up a vote to oust him.
