The ETF analyst predicted that recent developments in the Ripple vs. SEC case and the upcoming Grayscale lawsuit would be crucial to the first spot Bitcoin ETF approval.
The chances of approval of a spot Bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded fund (ETF) in the United States have now increased to 65% from a mere 1% just a couple of months ago.
Bloomberg ETF analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart said in a recent statement that the chances of approval for a Bitcoin ETF have increased significantly over the past month, owing to various new developments around the crypto market and the refiling of ETF applications by the likes of BlackRock.
Seyffart noted that a lot will depend on the timing of the Grayscale case dates and their recent boost in approval will depend on Grayscale’s victory over the SEC in Federal court. He added that Grayscale’s win against the SEC could set trigger a series of simultaneous approval for all spit Bitcoin ETF filings by the end of the fourth quarter later this year.
The lynchpin for this current thesis is a Grayscale victory over the SEC in Federal court. Which COULD set things up for a wave of SEC approvals sometime in the 4th quarter? All depends on how much Gensler wants to fight here.
— James Seyffart (@JSeyff) August 2, 2023
Seyffart believes that the BlackRock and the Coinbase surveillance sharing agreement (SSA) drastically changed the spot Bitcoin ETF analysis — not to mention the Ripple case, which is less important but still relevant. We will update our views and opinions as new information comes to light.
Related: Ether ETFs pending — Grayscale, VanEck and others file SEC applications
The spot Bitcoin ETF filing spree began with BlackRock’s filing with the SEC on June 16. WisdomTree, Invesco and Valkyrie, along with several other institutional giants, followed suit. The recent slew of filings in the second quarter of 2023 comes despite the SEC rejecting all spot ETF filings earlier. Many market analysts believe 2023 could prove crucial for the spot Bitcoin ETF.
The spot Bitcoin ETF race has garnered attention from some of the biggest traditional financial institutions and analysts, while Balchunas believes that the interest of institutional giants like BlackRock could be the best possible chance for approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF.
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