After weeks of low volatility, Bitcoin bulls are trying to make a comeback, but the rise in the U.S. Dollar Index may limit the upside recovery.
Bitcoin has been stuck inside a tight range in August. Glassnode lead on-chain analyst Checkmate highlighted that the spread between the upper and lower Bollinger Bands for Bitcoin has shrunk to 2.9%, its third-tightest ever.
Typically, periods of low volatility are followed by a range expansion. The longer the time spent inside a range, the stronger the eventual breakout from it. The only problem is that it is difficult to time the breakout with certainty. Therefore, traders should be watchful. Otherwise, they may miss out on the opportunity to ride the next trending move.
One reason that risk assets may be weighed down is the strength of the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which has risen for four consecutive weeks.
In contrast, United States equities markets entered a corrective phase in the past few days. The S&P 500 Index (SPX) and the Nasdaq Composite have both pulled back for the past two weeks, indicating profit-booking by short-term traders.
What are the important support and resistance levels to watch for in Bitcoin (BTC) and altcoins? Let’s analyze the charts to find out.
S&P 500 Index price analysis
The S&P 500 Index dipped below the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) of 4,497 on Aug. 3, and since then, the bears thwarted several attempts by the bulls to push the price back above this level.
The price bounced off the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) of 4,443 on Aug. 14, indicating that the bulls are guarding this level with all their might. Buyers will try to keep up the momentum and shove the price back above the 20-day EMA. If they succeed, the index could start its journey to 4,607 and subsequently to 4,650.
If bears want to seize control, they will have to protect the 20-day EMA and tug the price below the 50-day SMA. That could start a deeper correction to 4,300 and later to 4,200.
U.S. Dollar Index price analysis
The U.S. Dollar Index held support at the 20-day EMA ($102) on Aug. 4 and again on Aug. 10, indicating a change in sentiment from selling on rallies to buying on dips.
The index has reached the downtrend line, which is likely to act as a formidable resistance. If the price turns down from the downtrend line but rebounds off the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that the trend remains bullish. That will enhance the prospects of a rally above the downtrend line. The index could then soar toward the overhead resistance at 106.
This positive view will invalidate in the near term if the price tumbles below the 20-day EMA. There is minor support at 101.74, but if this level gives way, the index could drop to 100.82.
Bitcoin price analysis
Bitcoin slipped below the 20-day EMA ($29,458) on Aug. 13, but the bears could not build upon this advantage and sink the price to the critical support at $28,585. This suggests a lack of aggressive selling at lower levels.
The flattish 20-day EMA and the relative strength index (RSI) near the midpoint indicate a balance between buyers and sellers. This suggests that the BTC/USDT pair could continue to consolidate inside the range between $28,585 and $30,350 for a while longer.
The next trending move is likely to begin after the price escapes this range. If the price turns down and plunges below the $28,585 support, it could start a descent to $26,000. Conversely, a rally above $30,350 could enhance the prospects of a rally to the overhead resistance zone between $31,500 and $32,400.
Ether price analysis
Ether (ETH) has been clinging to the 20-day EMA ($1,853) for the past few days, indicating that the bulls have maintained their buying pressure but the bears have held their ground.
The 20-day EMA is flattening out and the RSI is near the midpoint, indicating that the selling pressure could be reducing. If bulls thrust the price above the moving averages, the ETH/USDT pair may rally to $1,930 and then to $2,000.
If bears want to maintain their control, they will have to defend the moving averages. If the price turns down from the 50-day SMA ($1,877), the pair could skid to the strong support at $1,816. This is an important level for the bulls to watch out for because a break below it may sink the pair to $1,700.
BNB price analysis
BNB (BNB) has been trading below the moving averages for the past three days, but the bears have not been able to sink the price to the support line of the symmetrical triangle.
If the price does not break above or below the triangle within the next few days, then it will invalidate the pattern. The flattish moving averages and the RSI just below the midpoint signal that the dull price action may continue for some more time.
A break and close above the triangle will be the first sign that the uncertainty has resolved in favor of the bulls. The BNB/USDT pair could then rally to the overhead resistance at $265.
On the other hand, a break and close below the triangle could sink the pair to the crucial support at $220.
XRP price analysis
XRP (XRP) has been swinging between the moving averages for the past few days, indicating buying near the 50-day SMA ($0.62) and selling at the 20-day EMA ($0.65).
Although buyers have held the 50-day SMA, the downsloping 20-day EMA and the RSI in the negative territory indicate that bears have the edge. A shallow bounce off the current level will increase the prospects of a drop below the 50-day SMA. If that happens, the XRP/USDT pair may slump to $0.56.
Contrary to this assumption, if the price climbs above the 20-day EMA, it will indicate solid buying at lower levels. The pair may then move up to $0.74.
Cardano price analysis
Cardano (ADA) has been correcting inside a descending channel pattern for the past few days. This suggests a lack of aggressive buying by the bulls.
The first sign of strength will be a break and close above the resistance line of the channel. That could open the doors for a possible rally to $0.34. If this level is scaled, the ADA/USDT pair may retest the July 14 intraday high at $0.38.
The bears are likely to have other plans. They will try to sell the rallies to the resistance line of the channel. If the price turns down from this level, it will signal that the pair may continue to descend inside the channel. The important support to watch on the downside is $0.26.
Related: Bitcoin teases new volatility as BTC price taps 4-day high near $29.6K
Dogecoin price analysis
Dogecoin’s (DOGE) recovery was rejected at the downtrend line on Aug. 13, indicating that the bears are fiercely defending this level.
The price has reached the support line of the ascending channel, which is an important level to keep an eye on. If the price plummets below the support line, the DOGE/USDT pair could tumble to $0.07.
Contrarily, if the price turns up from the current level and breaks above the downtrend line, it will signal that the bulls remain buyers at lower levels. The pair could first rise to $0.08 and later to the resistance line of the channel at $0.09.
Solana price analysis
Solana (SOL) is trading inside the range between $22.30 on the downside and $26 on the upside. A minor advantage in favor of the bulls is that the price is trading above the 20-day EMA ($24.09).
If the current bounce sustains, the bulls will try to drive the SOL/USDT pair above the overhead resistance at $26. If they succeed, the pair could pick up momentum and climb to $29.12 and later to $32.13.
Alternatively, if the price turns down from $26, it will suggest that the pair may extend its stay inside the range for a few more days. The bears will have to yank the price below $22.30 to come out on top.
Polygon price analysis
The bulls are finding it difficult to push Polygon (MATIC) above the 20-day EMA ($0.69), but a positive sign is that they have not ceded ground to the bears.
The moving averages are flattening out and the RSI is just below the midpoint, indicating a balance between supply and demand. This balance could tilt in favor of the bulls if they propel the price above the 50-day SMA ($0.70). The MATIC/USDT pair could then attempt a rally to $0.80.
On the contrary, if the price turns down from the 50-day SMA, it will signal that bears are active at higher levels. That may keep the pair stuck inside a range for a few days. The bears will have to sink and sustain the price below the support near $0.65 to gain the upper hand. The pair could then slide to $0.60.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
