Buckle up for some really wild weather over the next few days.
Storm Ciaran is due to hit the UK on Wednesday night and into Thursday, bringing very high winds and a lot more rain.
The storm has been seeded by huge temperature extremes over North America. Canada is below freezing, while southern California is basking in highs over 30C.
That’s whipping up the high-altitude winds of the jet stream to around 200mph. And in there is the kernel of Ciaran racing across the Atlantic.
On Wednesday, the storm is forecast to break away from the jet stream and barrel directly towards the UK, with the air pressure at its centre dropping rapidly – perhaps so low that it breaks the record for a November storm – 948.4mb, set in 1954.
The lower the air pressure, the stronger the winds, with the highest speeds expected on the southern edge of the storm system.
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The Met Office has issued an amber weather warning for Pembrokeshire, Cornwall and Devon between 3am and 1pm on Thursday, and the Channel coast from Dorset to Kent between 6am and 8pm.
Wind speeds could be 70 to 80mph on the coast, possibly exceeding 85mph in exposed spots.
That’s enough to cause significant damage to property, with debris being hurled through the air.
Trees will also take a battering because they are still in full leaf. And transport will be disrupted.
If the storm follows the current predicted track, the high winds only really clip the southern coast of the UK.
But they are far worse over the Channel Islands and northern France.
A northward shift of the storm by just 50 miles could significantly increase the impact to the UK. So stay tuned.
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The storm will also bring lots more rain – and over a much wider area.
That’s because Ciaran will grind almost to a halt over the UK, its path blocked by a curl of the jet stream.
But while the storm centre barely moves, the rain bands continue to spin round and round over the UK.
That’ll mean 20 to 25mm (an inch or so) of rain quite widely, and perhaps 60mm in some places, with the worst in southern and western areas over Thursday and Friday.
That’s not unusual for an autumn storm, but it comes on top of all the rain we’ve had in a really soggy October.
The ground can’t hold any more water so there is likely to be widespread flooding.
Then, just as Ciaran finally moves off over the North Sea, we get another storm piling in, bringing yet more rain over the weekend.
All in all, we’re set for some really unpleasant weather for the rest of the week.
