Quick Take
In accordance with market expectations, the Federal Reserve maintained a steady stance in its recent meeting, holding the federal funds rate constant between 5.25 and 5.50. A significant takeaway from this meeting is the indication of the monetary policy’s direction for the near future. With one more Fed meeting scheduled for 2023, the odds currently suggest a 73% probability of maintaining the status quo. The first rate cut, as indicated by these trends, may not occur until June 2024.
Interestingly, amidst these developments, Bitcoin’s performance remained stable, managing to maintain a position above the $34,000 mark. This indicates that despite alterations in traditional financial policy, the cryptocurrency’s value remains unaffected, thus demonstrating a degree of resilience.
| CME FEDWATCH TOOL – MEETING PROBABILITIES | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MEETING DATE | 350-375 | 375-400 | 400-425 | 425-450 | 450-475 | 475-500 | 500-525 | 525-550 | 575-600 | 600-625 |
| 01/11/2023 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 97.1% | 2.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 13/12/2023 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 73.2% | 26.1% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 31/01/2024 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 62.6% | 32.9% | 4.4% | 0.1% | |
| 20/03/2024 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 8.1% | 58.7% | 29.3% | 3.8% | 0.1% |
| 01/05/2024 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 3.2% | 27.9% | 47.2% | 19.3% | 2.4% | 0.1% |
| 12/06/2024 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 36.4% | 34.9% | 11.8% | 13.3% | |
| 31/07/2024 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.8% | 8.4% | 26.3% | 35.6% | 22.2% | 6.1% | 0.6% | |
| 18/09/2024 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 4.9% | 18.2% | 31.4% | 28.2% | 13.4% | 3.8% | 0.3% | |
| 07/11/2024 | 0.0% | 2.5% | 10.9% | 24.2% | 30.0% | 21.5% | 8.7% | 1.8% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| 18/12/2024 | 0.1% | 1.6% | 7.7% | 19.1% | 27.8% | 24.8% | 13.6% | 4.5% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
Source: CME Group
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