Tory Rwanda rebels have shown their hand.
They have been able to demonstrate their side are willing to go further than before Christmas – and that they have the numbers to defeat the government tomorrow.
Two prominent figures on the right – salaried deputy chairman of the Conservative Party – have resigned their posts to show the strength of feeling about the Rwanda issue.
Meanwhile 70 Tories, ex-Tories and DUP MPs have turned out to vote for an amendment to block international law from applying to the Rwanda policy in defiance of the PM even than signed the amendment.
The question now is whether the government is prepared to risk a defeat by going ahead tomorrow, or whether ministers abandon a plan to hold a vote in fear of defeat.
Some 60 Tory MPs, including 10 former cabinet ministers, voted against the government.
Tory deputy chairmen resign party roles as government suffers significant rebellion on Rwanda bill
Beth Rigby: PM might win this Rwanda battle, but has he already lost the war?
Lee Anderson says he will back rebels’ changes to Rwanda bill
If 33 of these are prepared to hold their nerve in 24 hours and vote against the government in the next vote on the bill, then the bill falls and suddenly the Sunak government is facing an existential crisis.
For Mr Sunak to lose this bill – which he has ended up making central to his premiership – is not automatically fatal.
It is not formally a issue of confidence.
But it may not be far off.
The biggest question in politics therefore is whether the chief whip and the PM hold tomorrow’s third reading bill, or pull it.
There are people in surprising parts of the Conservative Party who believe that Mr Sunak’s premiership is in dire straits and that a change of leader – however mad that might seem to the country – could be necessary.
They’re not currently for changing leader, but they’re not viscerally hostile.
All of this today means red lights on the dashboard should be flashing in Number 10.
