Not invited to American talks with Russia on the future of Ukraine, European leaders are holding a hastily convened meeting of their own on Monday.
After years of exasperation from the US over Europe’s more relaxed attitude to defence spending – nothing quite makes the point about military irrelevance than being left out of the room where the future of Ukraine is likely to be decided.
President Macron’s scrambled plan to get European leaders to drop everything and come to Paris for talks demonstrates the high level of alarm at the new world order.
As well as the UK, Paris has confirmed those on the invite list for the “informal” meeting include Germany, Italy, Poland, Spain, the Netherlands and Denmark – as well as the president of the European Council, the president of the European Commission and the secretary general of NATO.
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Sir Keir Starmer will be attending, describing it as “a once in a generation moment for our national security… we cannot allow any divisions in the alliance to distract from the external enemies we face”.
Donald Trump’s special envoy for Russia and Ukraine, General Kellogg, has laid down the gauntlet to Europe’s leaders to come up with their own contributions to the Ukrainian peace process, calling on them to “participate in the debate, not by complaining about being at the table or not, but by presenting concrete proposals, ideas, by increasing spending.”
And that is exactly what will be on the table at Monday’s meeting.
While it seems unlikely the leaders will be either willing or practically able to develop a new European army of the kind requested by President Zelenskyy, their discussions will surely focus on the options for a future peacekeeping force in Ukraine, how best to bolster Ukraine’s existing fighting capabilities, and underlying everything – the level of future defence spending.
The figures tell a clear story. As the top three military powers in NATO, the US spends $967.71bn on defence, Germany $97.69bn and the UK $82.11bn
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President Trump has called for NATO members to spend 5% of GDP on defence spending – and for Europe to take over responsibility for its own defence.
The UK has been effusively nodding along with that argument in principle, with the PM arguing “it’s clear Europe must take on a greater role in NATO” while continuing to work with the US.
The government has pledged to increase defence spending from around 2.3% to 2.5%, but we’re still waiting to find out when and how that target will be met, let alone surpassed.
Just meeting the original 2.5% target is set to cost £5bn – a figure which is difficult for the chancellor to justify while keeping within her self-imposed fiscal rules and under pressure to make cuts to government spending elsewhere.
Sunday’s papers are full of speculation about cabinet division over the issue.
Could the chancellor break her rule on not borrowing to fund day-to-day spending, and borrow to pay for rearmament?
The foreign secretary made the point at Munich on Saturday that the UK spent 7% on defence at the height of the Cold War – and that the costs of Ukraine falling to Russia would ultimately be far higher.
Whatever the European leaders agree to on Monday, Sir Keir Starmer is likely to act as a kind of envoy to the Americans when he flies out to meet Donald Trump at the White House next week. We understand the Europeans will then reconvene following his return, alongside President Zelenskyy.
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Jonathan Reynolds, the business secretary, told Sky’s Trevor Phillips this morning “there is a role the United Kingdom can play, which is in that bridge between European allies and our US allies”.
That bridge is in danger of becoming something of a tightrope given the growing transatlantic distance between the US and Europe.
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Divisions are growing not just on how to handle the conflict in Ukraine and the future of NATO, but on broader issues of society and democracy too, following the US vice president’s broadside against European countries including the UK and Germany over supposed issues of free speech and religious freedom.
The special relationship will be doing a lot of heavy lifting.
