Russian missile strikes have targeted the western Ukrainian city of Lviv – just hours after a top general suggested Moscow was scaling back its invasion to focus on the Donbas region in the east.
Lviv has been largely spared since the invasion began, with an estimated 200,000 people who have had to flee their home towns relocating there.
However, on Saturday a series of strikes hit its outskirts – with one missile hitting an oil facility.
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Sky News online spoke to military expert Air Vice Marshal Sean Bell to get his take on what hardware was used, and why there could be a change in Russian tactics.
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What weaponry was used?
“Because of the location of Lviv – in the far west of Ukraine – it’s likely they were guided missiles,” Mr Bell said.
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“The city itself is not in range for mortars so these strikes were more likely to be some form of cruise missile that can be fired from a long way away.
“And because of the distances involved, and the accuracy, they were most probably guided missiles.”
Where were the missiles fired from?
The city’s mayor Andriy Sadovyi said the strikes were by rockets that had been fired from Sevastopol in Crimea.
Others suggested the attacks were launched from a ship – a theory that follows video being released by Russia’s Ministry of Defence showing similar strikes on Ukrainian military infrastructure from the Black Sea.
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However, Mr Bell says we just can’t be sure.
“Cruise missiles can travel such a distance that these attacks could have been launched from the Donbas region, from the Navy or from Russia itself. We just don’t know.”
Why didn’t air defences work?
“Firstly, Lviv has not been a major target so far in this conflict, so most of the missile defences will be positioned in places like Kyiv and Mariupol where we’ve seen the heaviest fighting.
“Secondly, guided cruise missiles are particularly hard to defend against. They can change flight path, travel some of the distance at extreme heights or even follow the contour of the land.
“Fixed radar sites would generally be placed on high ground for better tracking. Guided missiles can avoid these.
“And mobile defences are obviously put in areas where attacks are more likely – which so far has not been Lviv.”
Why might have Russia attacked Lviv?
Russian President Vladimir Putin could have had a number of different motivations to attack Lviv, Mr Bell says.
“US President Joe Biden was visiting Poland at the time of the attack. And while not strictly that close – it could definitely be seen as a message that ‘we are not finished’.
“Another possibility is that the world’s press are in Lviv. We’ve seen reports showing us how the people of the city are pretty much going about their lives as normal. It could have been a way of telling them they aren’t safe.
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“Russia could also have been targeting strategic sites that may not have an impact on Ukraine’s war effort right away – but maybe at some point down the line.
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“But maybe this was after reports Russia was going to focus on the Donbas region. Was that misinformation ahead of a planned strike on a western city?
“Or was this Putin reacting after one of his generals gave the wrong impression – or mis-spoke?”
